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Rains… and Cold

It is heavily raining outside. I am in Arusha. I will be sleeping in Moshi. It is pouring outside…and already looking dark. There is a maximum speed limit of 50km/h on the highway. And for the 13th time someone has been playing kwangwaru…and it’s lowkey turning me up.

I can’t help think of how life would change and start on a clean slate if I actually moved to Tanzania as a legal migrant – like I get a Tanzania citizenship. People are so so nice and awfully polite I can’t even think to lie to my boss back home. What is this? The country, in the outskirts of towns is sparsely populated, coming from where I do and for some reason it is hard to understand why people are oh so disciplined and not in a hurry to amass land, aka wealth, in this part of the Sahara.

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Next day – today.

It is so freaking cold I can’t think. It’s saddening what is happening everywhere. Bomb packages sent, journalists murdered, others kidnapped for 40 months!?! What! And Trump tweeting how CNN calls him out for being unpresidential. Talking of presidential, it is exciting to hear that Ethiopia has it’s first female president. In fact, that is the first female president in the Eastern Africa. I wonder what she feels about it.

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Misplaced priorities

This world is not a place where we belong. People live lives like they will never die but live forever. And again, there are a lot of people who are alive but do not actually live. Most of us can not differentiate between the two. Being alive does not necessarily mean living! Meaning? Any being with a soul attached to it’s body is alive. Plants,brutes and Mankind have souls,but do plants and bruteslive? Well, but that is a discussion for another day, today I have something more important to talk about.

So I’ll repeat myself. The world is not a place where we’ll dwell forever, it is just a spot where we seek the path to our destiny. What is our destiny? we all know the answer to that, depending on the lifestyle one leads. I’m seated at the end of a huge rock besides the waters of Fort Jesus, dangling my feet as I am writing this piece on my Lumia 520…

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Let’s do Regression Analysis

maths

Yes. Let’s do regression analysis today. This post comes up consequent of a humble request by one of the blog readers. And since I have a thing for maths, i thought why not?  Hey Stan! Your post is finally up. Straight on to basics.

Regression analysis is a quantitative forecasting technique that is used to develop an equation that will estimate costs given a certain number of unit production. For starters, determining how cost will change with output or other measurable factors of activity is of vital importance in decision making, planning and control. The challenge for most organisations is to determine how costs will be in future because costs behave variably in different seasons. You know they pose a challenge to predict them.

A regression equation allows one to mark the relationship between variables that are dependent and those that are independent. In most cases cost is the dependent variable and cost drivers the independent variables. The regression equation is written like this:

y = a + bx 

Once the equation is identified, you can use the equation to predict costs for the future. This equation enables managers develop budget plans since they can forecast future costs with some degree of certainty.

The cost equation will most of the times be derived from past data. Past data could involve looking at company’s records, interviewing managers or conducting special studies. The disadvantage of this, as you will agree, is that it assumes past trends will be replicated in future. This is not always the case. The following steps are followed in estimating a cost function using regression analysis:

Maths2

  1. 1. Choose the dependent variable – This will depend on the cost function being estimated. Remember that the dependent variable is the cost to be predicted and managed.
  2. Identify the independent variable – This is the factor to predict the dependent variable. An independent variable should be measurable and have an economically plausible relationship with the dependent variable. Economic plausability means that the relationship describing how changes in the cost driver leads to changes being considered is based on a physical relationship, a contract or knowledge of operations and makes economic sense to the manager concerned. Of importance to note, is that all the individual items of cost included in the dependent variable should have the same independent variable (cost driver).
  3.  Collect data on the dependent and independent variables – These data could be time series or cross-sectional data.
  4. Plot the data – The plot provides insight into the relevant range of the cost function and reveals whether the relationship is approximately linear.
  5. Estimate the cost function – This has over time appeared to be the most difficult stage of regression analysis. In class assignments this is where the work begins. All the above steps are usually already done for us.
  6. Interpret the equation.

That was the basic introduction to regression analysis. In Let’s do Regression Analysis Part 2 I will show you how to carry out step 5 and 6. I will also explain what correlation coefficient and coefficient of variation mean and what their implications are.

Keep it here for more insights.

Inspire me, Uncategorized

My Very First Post

Fisrt Post

Howdy people!

Finally I got myself together and joined the exciting world of bloggers. It feels exciting I must say. I had always looked forward to having a blog of my own where I could share my experiences in this dear world but never had a platform that could help me set things up. Thanks to WordPress! It took me less than 20 minutes to do it and the interface is really user-friendly. Really. Anyone who would like to start off, I recommend it for you.

I have to thank some really good friends of mine who encouraged me to start off. Sometimes you guys made it look like there was a prize at the end of the domain. Seriously! You were more into the idea more than I was. Thanks a bunch folks! I hope my articles will be good reads to all of you. And your ideas are still welcome by the way. Friends forever I mean! Thanks to all of you.

But why blogging? You may wonder. The reason I have done this is mainly because I want to share certain experiences in my life that I think will in one way or the other have a positive impact on someone. Not to say that I am a motivational writer but as the adage goes, “it is the little small things that make life big”. So who knows? You know you can also share yours? And encourage many people than you’d possibly imagine! Let’s be friends now.

I will be sharing inspirational articles oftentimes, investments analysis from my side of view, tech reviews, car reviews and book reviews, of my outstanding days in campus (yes, i am a student), what I have been up to and a joke of the day…All work and no laughter play makes Jack a dull boy. We all can concur. With time the categories will most definitely increase. But for your inspiration of the day, keep it here friends!

Bisous!